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4.2.2026

What Late February and March 2026 M&A Deals May Reveal About Digital Risk and Value Creation

Late February and March brought another wave of large-scale transactions across energy, financial infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, software, and industrial platforms.

Lóránt Erős

Digital Strategist

While the strategic rationale behind these deals differs by sector, several of them appear to share a common characteristic: operational and commercial digital maturity may increasingly influence how effectively post-deal value can be realised.

In some situations, the exposure appears tied to operational infrastructure and integration complexity. In others, the more relevant factors may relate to digital distribution, customer acquisition efficiency, digital brand positioning, or the ability to scale commercially through digital channels.

The observations below are based exclusively on publicly accessible information and should be viewed as directional perspectives only.

I. Devon Energy / Coterra Energy

Devon Energy / Coterra Energy — Digital Due Diligence
Energy

Devon Energy / Coterra Energy

US$38B

Deal Value

Digital Risk 4.0 / 10
Digital Opportunity 5.8 / 10

Indicative Transaction Value Exposure — Digital Due Diligence

Potential Valuation Impact Through Digital DD

0.1 – 0.5%

Potential Decrease in Deal Value

-$38M to -$190M

Operational Upside Potential Post-Deal

+2 – 7%

Scores at a Glance

Digital Risk

4.0 /10

Digital Opportunity

5.8 /10

Large energy combinations increasingly involve substantial operational digital coordination behind the scenes. Production environments, field data systems, operational monitoring infrastructure, and emissions reporting workflows are often developed incrementally across regions and acquired assets.

Publicly visible sector patterns suggest that operational standardisation across these systems may influence how efficiently combined assets can ultimately operate post-merger. Areas such as production visibility, predictive maintenance, and emissions-related reporting appear increasingly relevant from both operational and regulatory perspectives.

From a commercial perspective, digital brand exposure plays a smaller role in upstream energy compared to consumer-facing sectors. However, investor communication, ESG visibility, and digital perception around operational transparency may still influence market positioning over time.

II. Capital One / Brex

Capital One / Brex — Digital Due Diligence
Finance

Capital One / Brex

US$15B+

Deal Value

Digital Risk 5.2 / 10
Digital Opportunity 6.7 / 10

Indicative Transaction Value Exposure — Digital Due Diligence

Potential Valuation Impact Through Digital DD

0.3 – 0.6%

Potential Decrease in Deal Value

-$45M to -$90M

Operational & Commercial Upside Post-Deal

+4 – 12%

Scores at a Glance

Digital Risk

5.2 /10

Digital Opportunity

6.7 /10

Capital One’s reported acquisition activity involving Brex appears aligned with the broader movement among financial institutions toward digital-native business banking infrastructure.

Brex built much of its market positioning around digitally integrated expense management, modern finance workflows, and API-oriented infrastructure targeting startup and high-growth business customers. Transactions in this category are often influenced not only by technology integration, but also by customer experience expectations and digital distribution capabilities.

Digital brand equity may also be relevant here. Brex established strong visibility within startup ecosystems through product-led growth, digital community positioning, and high visibility across technology audiences. These factors can sometimes create intangible commercial advantages that are difficult to measure directly through financial reporting alone.

Operationally, integrating modern financial infrastructure into larger banking environments may introduce complexity related to compliance systems, customer architecture, and platform interoperability. However, if executed effectively, the acquisition could potentially strengthen Capital One’s position among digitally native business customers.

III. Deutsche Börse / Allfunds

Deutsche Börse / Allfunds — Digital Due Diligence
Financial Infrastructure

Deutsche Börse / Allfunds

US$26B

Deal Value

Digital Risk 4.8 / 10
Digital Opportunity 6.2 / 10

Indicative Transaction Value Exposure — Digital Due Diligence

Potential Valuation Impact Through Digital DD

0.2 – 0.7%

Potential Decrease in Deal Value

-$52M to -$182M

Operational Upside Potential Post-Deal

+3 – 12%

Scores at a Glance

Digital Risk

4.8 /10

Digital Opportunity

6.2 /10

Deutsche Börse’s acquisition activity around Allfunds reflects the continued strategic importance of financial infrastructure and distribution platforms within capital markets.

Allfunds operates at the intersection of fund distribution, data infrastructure, and digital investment ecosystems. Businesses in this category increasingly derive value not only from operational scale, but also from network effects, platform connectivity, and the ability to aggregate and distribute financial products efficiently across markets.

Digital visibility and platform positioning may also influence competitive resilience over time. In platform-based financial infrastructure businesses, brand trust, institutional visibility, and integration depth can become meaningful commercial advantages.

The operational challenge in transactions like this often relates to platform interoperability and ecosystem coordination across institutions, regulatory frameworks, and market participants. Where integration is executed effectively, there may be opportunities to improve distribution efficiency and strengthen recurring platform usage.

IV. HG Capital / OneStream

HG Capital / OneStream — Digital Due Diligence
Enterprise Software

HG Capital / OneStream

US$6.4B

Deal Value

Digital Risk 5.2 / 10
Digital Opportunity 6.8 / 10

Indicative Transaction Value Exposure — Digital Due Diligence

Potential Valuation Impact Through Digital DD

0.5 – 1.5%

Potential Decrease in Deal Value

-$32M to -$96M

Operational & Commercial Upside Post-Deal

+3 – 10%

Scores at a Glance

Digital Risk

5.2 /10

Digital Opportunity

6.8 /10

The reported private acquisition activity around OneStream highlights a recurring dynamic within enterprise software markets: growth quality increasingly depends on ecosystem depth, customer retention, and digital commercial efficiency rather than product functionality alone.

OneStream operates within financial planning and enterprise performance management software, where customer expansion, implementation ecosystems, and platform stickiness often influence long-term valuation quality.

From a digital commercial perspective, software businesses in this category frequently rely heavily on digital demand generation, ecosystem visibility, partner-driven distribution, and recurring digital engagement with enterprise buyers. Organic visibility, category positioning, and customer advocacy may therefore play a meaningful role in sustaining growth efficiency over time.

Operationally, private ownership could potentially create more flexibility around long-term platform investment and product development priorities. However, maintaining platform relevance within an increasingly AI-oriented enterprise software environment may remain an ongoing competitive consideration.

V. Sanofi / Drenyx Technologies

Sanofi / Drenyx Technologies — Digital Due Diligence
Pharma & AI

Sanofi / Drenyx Technologies

US$3.2B

Deal Value

Digital Risk 5.0 / 10
Digital Opportunity 6.0 / 10

Indicative Transaction Value Exposure — Digital Due Diligence

Potential Valuation Impact Through Digital DD

0.2 – 1.0%

Potential Decrease in Deal Value

-$6M to -$32M

Operational Upside Potential Post-Deal

+2 – 8%

Scores at a Glance

Digital Risk

5.0 /10

Digital Opportunity

6.0 /10

Sanofi’s acquisition of Drenyx Technologies reflects continued pharmaceutical sector interest in AI-supported commercial and R&D capabilities.

Beyond research applications, pharmaceutical businesses increasingly appear to compete through digital engagement infrastructure, physician communication ecosystems, and data-supported commercial activation capabilities. Public industry patterns suggest that companies with stronger digital commercial maturity may be better positioned to scale awareness and engagement efficiently across therapeutic areas.

Digital visibility may also influence performance indirectly through physician education content, search visibility around therapies, patient information ecosystems, and digital trust signals across healthcare channels. These factors can become commercially relevant over time, particularly in competitive therapeutic categories.

Operational integration may involve aligning AI-supported workflows, commercial infrastructure, and compliance-related systems across highly regulated environments. The extent to which these systems can be integrated effectively may influence scalability and execution efficiency over time.

VI. GSK / RAPT Therapeutics

GSK / RAPT Therapeutics — Digital Due Diligence
Biopharma

GSK / RAPT Therapeutics

US$2.6B

Deal Value

Digital Risk 4.8 / 10
Digital Opportunity 5.8 / 10

Indicative Transaction Value Exposure — Digital Due Diligence

Potential Valuation Impact Through Digital DD

0.2 – 0.8%

Potential Decrease in Deal Value

-$5M to -$20M

Operational Upside Potential Post-Deal

+2 – 10%

Scores at a Glance

Digital Risk

4.8 /10

Digital Opportunity

5.8 /10

GSK’s acquisition of RAPT Therapeutics continues the broader pharmaceutical trend of targeted pipeline expansion within specialised therapeutic categories.

Within biopharma, commercial digital infrastructure is increasingly relevant not only after approval, but also throughout physician engagement, medical education, and patient-awareness activities. Publicly visible industry dynamics suggest that digital visibility and trusted educational ecosystems may increasingly influence market penetration efficiency in competitive categories.

At the same time, highly specialised therapeutic markets often involve fragmented patient journeys and complex stakeholder communication environments. Digital engagement maturity, physician-facing content infrastructure, and data-supported commercial workflows may therefore influence long-term commercial execution quality.

While the operational digital exposure in transactions like this may appear lower than in platform-based technology acquisitions, the ability to build effective commercial engagement ecosystems post-acquisition can still become strategically important over time.

VII. Blackstone / EQT / AES Corporation

Blackstone / EQT / AES Corporation — Digital Due Diligence
Energy Infrastructure

Blackstone / EQT / AES Corporation

US$17B

Deal Value

Digital Risk 6.0 / 10
Digital Opportunity 5.5 / 10

Indicative Transaction Value Exposure — Digital Due Diligence

Potential Valuation Impact Through Digital DD

0.5 – 1.5%

Potential Decrease in Deal Value

-$51M to -$85M

Operational Upside Potential Post-Deal

+3 – 10%

Scores at a Glance

Digital Risk

6.0 /10

Digital Opportunity

5.5 /10

The consortium acquisition activity involving AES infrastructure assets reflects continued investor focus on energy infrastructure linked to grid modernisation, renewable integration, and long-term energy transition themes.

In infrastructure-heavy transactions, operational digital maturity increasingly appears relevant in areas such as energy management systems, predictive maintenance, operational monitoring, and grid optimisation. Public industry trends suggest that infrastructure portfolios with more standardised digital operational environments may be better positioned to manage scalability and operational consistency over time.

There may also be growing relevance around digital reporting capabilities, ESG transparency, and operational visibility across infrastructure portfolios, particularly as institutional investors continue placing greater emphasis on measurable operational data.

Unlike consumer-facing sectors, digital brand equity likely plays a more limited role here. However, operational digital maturity may still influence long-term efficiency, resilience, and integration quality.

Final observation

Across many of the transactions reviewed above, digital considerations appear increasingly connected not only to technology infrastructure itself, but also to broader operational scalability, commercial efficiency, customer acquisition dynamics, and post-deal integration quality.

In several sectors, publicly observable indicators suggest that digital brand visibility, customer engagement ecosystems, platform interoperability, and operational data maturity may increasingly influence how efficiently value can be realised after acquisitions close.

Looking across the transactions reviewed above, the indicative ranges suggest that observable digital factors could collectively represent several hundred million dollars of potential valuation sensitivity. In larger platform-driven transactions, the exposure may become materially higher depending on integration quality and operational execution after the acquisition closes.

These observations are directional only, but they illustrate why operational digital maturity is becoming increasingly difficult to separate from broader deal execution and long-term value creation.

As a result, Digital Due Diligence is becoming increasingly relevant not because it replaces traditional diligence processes, but because it may help identify operational digital factors that are not always fully visible through financial or commercial review alone.

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